Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello construct a monthly index of Geopolitical Risk (GPR Index) counting the occurrence of words related to geopolitical tensions in leading international newspapers –measuring frequency of articles in leading newspapers discussing rising geopolitical tensions. The source provides GPR indices covering the period from January 1985 to the present for the globe and 43 selected economies. The GPR index spikes around the Gulf War, after 9/11, during the 2003 Iraq invasion, during the 2014 Russia-Ukraine crisis, and after the Paris terrorist attacks. Geopolitical risks are often cited by policy-makers, investors, and media as key determinants of economic decisions.
Data and Geographical Coverage
The source provides the Benchmark Geopolitical Risk Index for the globe. The data also includes country-specific GPR indices in form of percent of articles satisfying the search categories for 43 economies
The Benchmark Index (GPR) uses 10 newspapers and starts in 1985; The Historical Index (GPRH) uses 3 newspapers and starts in 1900.
The country-specific GPR index reflects automated text-search results of the electronic archives of three U.S newspapers: The New York Times, Chicago Tribune and The Washington Post. For each of the 39 countries, Caldara and Iacoviello calculate the country-specific index by counting the monthly share of all newspaper articles from 1900 to 2020 (or 1985 to 2020 for the Recent Index) that both (1) meet the criterion for inclusion in the GPR index and (2) mention the name of the country or its major cities. Each index is expressed as a monthly share of newspaper articles. The resulting indices capture the U.S. perspective on risks posed by, or involving, the country in question.
The data sample includes part of the available data within World Trend Plus database.
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Easy Cross-Country Comparison via Global Economic Monitor and ASEAN Economic Monitor, offering a series of normalized data with extended history
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Country and Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts sourced from large international institutions such as IMF, World Bank and United Nations, as well as FocusEconomics Consensus Estimates coming from market participants
Major Commodity prices and indices, supply and demand metrics, as well as forecasts for Americas, MENA and Asia
Clear picture of the latest industry trends through International Associations data from sources such as Bank of International Settlement, OPEC, UNCTAD etc.